HONDO74 wrote:Rufus, this is in your area of expertise. How accurate is the article. ? You indicated how long it would take.
As I recall it took a long time for the Ebola vaccine
Time is relative - need drives things -- numbers and transmittal of Ebola were never hugely threatening in comparison. 1st vaccine for that was approved just last year; just not a pressing need in numbers. Have to also factor in business return on investment and numbers....
Coronavirus: Where are we with a vaccine?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497Quote
If one is found, how quickly could it be made available?
Realistically it is going to be mid-way through next year at best.
Keep hold of that "at best".
Phase 1 is safety - supposed to start next month; 6 months minimum thereafter. 20-60 volunteer; want to be a normal volunteer for that?
Phase 2 is efficacy - does it really work and how well. Could be another 6 months or more. If it fails to deliver; start over. Could be a 100 to ??? volunteers
Phase 3 is multi-center with big numbers done in areas where the disease is known to be to test if it works usually with controls, etc. - another 6 months at least; should be longer, but for a vaccine in time of need, really short-cutting everything.
18 months is if everything works perfectly and nothing goes wrong anywhere (possible....). Some phase 3 trials take many years! This 18-24 months is really high speed.
Still then have to put production into action; manufacturing & distribution - no magic wands there either!
Best case scenario would be seeing something really great in the phase 2 that the FDA permits accelerated approvals and fast-tracking.
Beginning to see why it takes time and money to get a drug just through to the approval stage. Phase 1 can be a few million; just add decimal points as you go forward.