Coronavirus:

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chuck
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby chuck » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:23 am

Then lets see percentages of positives v negatives. Not just positive results.


The only way to get truly meaningful numbers is to test everyone. We've already (erroneously) decided not to do that (its too expensive, takes too much time, requires too much resources,...). You try to use statistical analysis to infer what's really going on. Most of the stat's make sense to epidemiologists and the ones that aren't pushing some wacko agenda agree on the story they tell. Everyone else locks on to a specific stat that suits their needs/beliefs, takes it out of context and runs with it.

Science doesn't care whether you like the answer it comes up with.
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Once I built a railroad, now it's done --
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HONDO74
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby HONDO74 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:35 am

Bill Gates on coronavirus: Fall will be 'worse than the summer'
'All the numbers are ticking up,' Microsoft co-founder warns
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/bil ... virus-fall

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on Wednesday warned that the coronavirus pandemic could make the fall "worse than the summer."

The billionaire has been outspoken in his thoughts and advice regarding COVID-19, as well as his criticism of the government's handling of the virus. He predicted in 2015 that the world was not prepared for a pandemic.

"The fall is going to be worse than the summer," Gates said in an interview with Politico Playbook when asked what the government should do to "right the course" of COVID-19. "All the numbers are ticking up, and that was always a very good chance that as people go indoors and it's colder, that we would see more transmission."

He continued to say that until the U.S. has developed and starts actively distributing antibodies and a vaccine, likely by the first half of 2021, "all we have is our behavior," including masks and social distancing.

"Unfortunately, we've got a lot of fatigue and a lot of bad messages about these things," he said, adding that "U.S. mask compliance is actually pretty poor."

up148
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby up148 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:00 pm

Yes, mask wearing seems to be hit or miss depending on the part of the country you're in. I can only speak for KCMO and OKC, but OKC is 2-1/2 times higher than KCMO on total cases, deaths and new cases. From personal experience, mask wearing in the OKC area is really, really lax. Only national chains (big box stores and restaurants) are pushing it from what I saw. Quite different from the what you see in KCMO. Certainly looks convincing on mask wearing to me.

Neil
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby Neil » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:46 pm

As much as I think Bill Gates has done some wonderful things in business and philanthropy, his views on the pandemic are not of much interest to me. He's not an epidemiologist, virologist nor physician, much less having specialty training in infectious disease :). We've got more than enough opinions from people with no scientific knowledge or training, like the idiots in the White House. And not only opinions, but dreadfully and tragically wrong opinions. No one can predict the future. Currently we have the lowest rate of new cases per population in the nation locally, considering only counties with >500,000 people. Nonetheless, our active case rate is rising somewhat as colleges and schools reopen to some extent, and fools and the misinformed are holding both indoor parties and outdoor gatherings. No one knows what is contributing to that rise, but since almost a quarter of the cases are in people under 30, it's a good guess that poor compliance with masks and social distancing and increased testing of asymptomatic students are playing a role in finding/causing more infections. If you want to protect yourself, wear masks at all times when out of the home, keep your social circle to the absolute minimum and avoid indoor (and to a lesser extent outdoor) events in general, particularly if the people around you are unmasked, particularly if you cannot maintain distance from others indoors (and to a lesser extent outdoors).

My credentials for making these recommendations are 40+ years involved in infectious disease issues (not an infectious disease physician however) directly, graduate level and residency training in both basic and clinical virology. I'm also pretty current on COVID-19 stuff as I'm on our institutional workgroup of physicians and others related to clinical studies of COVID-19 and its treatment. If you'd rather listen to the President, Jared Kushner or some other yahoo, it's a free country. Sure, we could find out new stuff as time goes on, but the evidence about masks and minimizing indoor unprotected gatherings is unlikely to turn out to be wrong. As far as intentionally creating herd immunity, the vast majority of scientific and clinical opinion is that this will be catastrophic to some populations and waiting for a vaccine or better drugs to fully reopen society is a sound strategy for the coming months.
Neil

gregj410
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby gregj410 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:26 pm

My credentials for making these recommendations are 40+ years involved in infectious disease issues (not an infectious disease physician however) directly, graduate level and residency training in both basic and clinical virology. I'm also pretty current on COVID-19 stuff as I'm on our institutional workgroup of physicians and others related to clinical studies of COVID-19 and its treatment.



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HONDO74
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby HONDO74 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:45 pm

After 700 Students Test Positive, a College President Resigns
[The New York Times]
Amanda Rosa
,The New York Times•October 16, 2020

https://news.yahoo.com/700-students-tes ... 29064.html

The State University of New York at Oneonta on Thursday announced the abrupt resignation of its president only weeks after it experienced the most severe coronavirus outbreak of any public university in the state.

The departure of the president, Barbara Jean Morris, is one of the most high-profile over the coronavirus crisis, which has thrown many colleges and universities across the country into turmoil as they try to maintain some semblance of campus life during the outbreak.

Last month, more than 700 students at Oneonta tested positive for the virus, causing the shutdown of in-person classes. The outbreak forced state officials to send a virus control crew to the university to keep the spread from reaching the rest of the city, which is in upstate New York.

The outbreak at Oneonta began modestly with only two cases on Aug. 25, but then spread quickly.

Initially, the university tied the cases to a series of parties near campus, which led to five suspensions. But group gatherings off campus were common, students said.

Within days, 29 more positive cases were found. By Aug. 30, the university announced that 105 students — or about 3% of the people who were on campus or using campus facilities by then — had tested positive.

By now, more than 700 students had tested positive.

Oneonta, a school of about 6,000 students, has had almost more than double the number of virus cases that any other school in the SUNY system had.

Neil
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby Neil » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:54 pm

Which shows that you cannot test your way out of a pandemic. Contrary to the idiots in the White House :). Testing is only part of the strategy, although certainly important. Public health measures such as masks, social distancing and discouraging/forbidding group gatherings, particularly indoor, particularly without masks, are also needed to mitigate a respiratory disease that is highly infectious and also can be fatal to many. These things buy us time to find treatments and hopefully also develop some safe and effective vaccines.
Neil

HONDO74
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby HONDO74 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:43 pm

Neil wrote:Which shows that you cannot test your way out of a pandemic. Contrary to the idiots in the White House :


You have your fair share of Idiots in New York. One that comes to mind is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio who back in January when he said go out an have fun, go to the parade, go to the theater because that was what he was going to do. :wink: :wink:

Apparently the young people in up state New York are still following his advise..

Question Did you learn all those adjective That you use to describe people you don't Like while you were in college ??

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robert.
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby robert. » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:51 pm

Neil wrote:Which shows that you cannot test your way out of a pandemic. Contrary to the idiots in the White House :). Testing is only part of the strategy, although certainly important. Public health measures such as masks, social distancing and discouraging/forbidding group gatherings, particularly indoor, particularly without masks, are also needed to mitigate a respiratory disease that is highly infectious and also can be fatal to many. These things buy us time to find treatments and hopefully also develop some safe and effective vaccines.

Dorm living may be no different than assisted living. It's possible that these kids caught a virus while sleeping without a mask.
I spend entirely too many hours a day tying my shoes

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Rufus T. Firefly
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby Rufus T. Firefly » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:56 pm

robert. wrote:
Neil wrote:Which shows that you cannot test your way out of a pandemic. Contrary to the idiots in the White House :). Testing is only part of the strategy, although certainly important. Public health measures such as masks, social distancing and discouraging/forbidding group gatherings, particularly indoor, particularly without masks, are also needed to mitigate a respiratory disease that is highly infectious and also can be fatal to many. These things buy us time to find treatments and hopefully also develop some safe and effective vaccines.


Dorm living may be no different than assisted living.


It may be worse; 1-4 kids sharing space.....

It's possible that these kids caught a virus while sleeping without a mask.


Huh? What?
What if lollipops moaned every time we licked them?

Neil
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby Neil » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:04 pm

"Dorm living may be no different than assisted living. It's possible that these kids caught a virus while sleeping without a mask."

Most colleges have reduced the number of on campus students and it's one kid to a room, if they have any sense. That's what we're doing.

As for what I learned in college, if calling people who are making stupid decisions that kill and maim people idiots is offensive, well so be it. If calling people like Mike Wolf (a selfish, greedy and narcissistic leader) and Pat Fusco (a violent and hostile individual) jerks offends anyone by speaking ill of the holy (Wolf) and dead (Fusco), well, perhaps I'm out of line.

I learned the words idiot, dictator and Caligula long before entering college. I grew up on the mean streets of New York City remember. Those are relatively civilized terms there. :)
Neil

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robert.
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby robert. » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:05 pm

If you share a room and the person next to you has the virus. Last dorm i remember. Beds were about 5 feet apart
I spend entirely too many hours a day tying my shoes

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robert.
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby robert. » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:18 pm

Not the university near me. They came out and said " Without student housing we will go under" They are using a bubble philosophy. My understanding is that they are doing a 6 day schedule with long days. Nov 15 school is out till mid Jan.
Just remember that 8 million people survive a day on New York streets. It must not be all that hard.
I spend entirely too many hours a day tying my shoes

gregj410
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby gregj410 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:29 pm

you have your fair share of Idiots in New York


Another shit hole people are leaving never to return. I didn’t know Neil was from New York......explains a lot.

HONDO74
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Re: Coronavirus:

Postby HONDO74 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:30 pm

gregj410 wrote:
you have your fair share of Idiots in New York


Another shit hole people are leaving never to return. I didn’t know Neil was from New York......explains a lot.


I believe it's just the rich that are leaving. The poor are still stuck in the GANG, DRUG AND rat infested NYC.


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