Postby Chris Rock » Sun May 10, 2020 5:01 pm
Holy cow! I saw this thing was up to page out of sight and had to take a look.
My great uncle got a virus during the 1918-1918 Pandemic. He was in St. Elizabeth's for the rest of his life and never said a word. From what I've read, that pandemic had 650,000 US dead. Adjusting for population increase would work out to be 1.3 million today. Estimates were 50 million dead worldwide.
A few weeks before I had even heard of the coronavirus, my wife and I were grocery shopping and there was a guy in the water aisle filling up two karts with jugs of water. I asked my wife if she thought he was planning on filling up a pool. Looking back I know what he was doing.
A few weeks later, the night the President came on TV and the NBA shut down, my wife and I looked at each other and said this is going to be bad. We went out and stocked up that night and saw long lines at the store at that 11:00 hour. With all the reaction I thought this was going to be something like a 25% death rate event or something with chaos in the streets. My wife thought the same and she asked if we were going to buy a gun. I told her I think so.
So, looking at the numbers now, they look pretty good to me. Of course nobody wants to get the virus or for anyone else to get it either. But pandemics come along, they kill a bunch of people and then people develop immunity or a vaccine and the virus goes away. If neither of those happens then we're pretty screwed no matter what you do. If you are lucky enough to live then we just have to be thankful for that. Flattening the curve will help heathcare workers and slow the spread but not stop it. My thought is the virus is going to keep coming around in waves until a vaccine is found. Those places where the curve is flattened now are just going to have numbers rise at some point, 1 week, month or whenever they open.
New York city is up to 1,500 deaths per million people, probably will go to 2,000+. It seems like they'll be a good barometer to set a high mark for the rest of the country or where the rest of the country might expect to go. At 2,000 deaths per million gives us 640,000 deaths nationally. At 3,000 deaths per million gives us 960,000 deaths nationally. If you take the total for the 1918-1919 pandemic of 650,000 dead and multiply it by 2 for population growth gives us 1.3 million for that event so the numbers of the coronavirus are not shocking to me in the least.
I guess I'm most confused as to why we keep hearing how unprecedented this event is, or how unfathomable it is. It is very "precedented" and very fathomable since pandemics, some likely much worse have happened throughout history.
The only thing I see here that is unprecedented is the nature of the virus itself in that some people show no signs of having it. And maybe that the world is actually going to great lengths in an experiment to fight it. While it is admirable to think that people in the US are going to shelter in place until a vaccine comes along, it also seems ideal and unrealistic to me. It's like developing the perfect plan to win the Super Bowl and handing it to an ADD high school team to implement.
At any rate, my wife and I are blessed that we still have our jobs and we have worked from home for years already. We follow pretty strictly what we should be doing to avoid the virus and figure things actually have not changed a whole lot for us. Even when things do open up, we'll still adhere to a great level of avoidance on our own until a vaccine is available. I understand this doesn't give me a leg on which to stand in an argument to keep the shutdown going, and if we were out of jobs, I'm pretty certain we'd be very pissed at the shutdown.