Do hobbyists prefer Legacy to DCS 4 to 1?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Here's some sobering news for DCS fans. Apparently Mike Wolf is now 60 years old. I'm sure he has plenty of good years left, but I don't think he wants to spend them running MTH and living in Columbia MD. When he sells or gets tired of working, it will be a quick death for DCS is my guess.

I would assume Mike would sell the rights to DCS, if not the trains themselves. There are enough DCS engines out there for someone else to support them by at least continuing offering the upgrade kits and doing repairs much like 3rd Rail did taking over Electric Railroad.

What's the date on the last MTH assigned patent? Once that expires all that's left is the brand name. Hard to imagine that upgrade kits and doing repairs would support a business that many would want to invest in.

[Norton]

We'll see. DCS kits now cost less even at list price than an equivelent ERR upgrade when you add all the components.
Even though there are many fewer MTH engines out there consider both Premier and Railking use the same electronics.
The market is there just as there is for 100 year old Model T and Model A fords, Lionel trains, and even 50 year old Norton motorcycles. Norton wasn't a major seller when new yet there is a companay making 95% of the spares to keep these antiques running. I can get parts easier for my Norton than most can for 40 year old Japanese bikes.

Pete

[Neil]

I think you're right that someone will be making PS2 or PS3 replacements/upgrades once MTH is gone from the scene. Just that there will be no new stuff with DCS, and likely no one will be manufacturing TIUs/AIUs/WIUs. And if an aftermarket LC+ or LC+ 2.0 type upgrade at half or two-thirds the cost is available, most people will go with those, if Lionel is still in business and making Legacy/TMCC/Universal systems/remotes. I'd bet, if I were a betting man, that 10 years from now, Lionel will still be in business, but MTH will be history. Not of great concern to us oldsters, but those in their 30s-50s probably will be affected.

Just for the record, I just ordered some Genesee reefers from Mr. Muffin for my adult sons, and I did buy a Kodak PS3 loco from them as well, so I'm not totally averse to MTH purchases. I just don't see DCS as a fun, reliable, simple to implement system I want to buy into. If I ever have a permanent layout, it won't be using DCS. No real need for me, and I can do without the annoyances. Hence my preference for LC+, LC and the occasional Legacy loco, even though I'm still, like George, using TMCC only for a system.

[jlong]

"This could actually be an opportunity for DCS to surpass Legacy."

I think you are dreaming Pete. DCS is a kludge with no substantial market penetration. It's completely restricted to MTH locos. It only attracts technophiles such as yourself. Most hobbyists just want something simple that is reliable and convenient. That ain't DCS. Not to mention market share. For every PS3 loco that is sold by MTH, Lionel probably sells 100 LionChief locos in sets. DCS is very small potatoes compared with LionChief, LC+, Legacy, taken together, much less DCC.

I'm sure someone will make PS3 upgrades, as you suggest, but it's going to be a fringe undertaking that someone does out of love, not the ability to make money. Indeed, it would not surprise me if what happens when MTH passes from the scene, is that PS2 and PS3 locos that need new electronics receive the equivalent of LC or LC+ upgrades instead, by a yet to exist company. Will be dirt cheap compared with 200-300 dollars for PS3 replacements. Probably 1/3 or 1/2 the cost at most.

Unless their is some Richard Kughn style MTH collector who is willing to buy the company lock, stock and barrel, I would imagine MTH tooling for engines, rolling stock and accessories getting absorbed by Atlas, Lionel and possibly 3rd Rail (unlikely) with Menards picking up a few of the scraps. Seeing Atlas and 3rd Rail are currently TMCC base, I cannot picture them pulling a switch-a-roo on their existing customer base with DCS. That would go over like a lead balloon. 2000 percent guaranteed. If anything, Lionel will get the rights to expand on Legacy so it accesses DCS functions in pre-existing MTH engines. DCS board technology going to some cottage industry for servicing existing MTH engines. But not in the style MTH does it now. Having to spend 300 bucks for an entire upgrade kit it is utterly ridiculous. Unless it's a high end steamer, you may as well deep six the engine and buy a new one for a few dollars more.

[Norton]

DCS kits list for 200 bucks, 180 at the discounters. They are no harder ro install than an ERR kit and come with everything you need including lights and couplers excepting smoke unit. You want Legacy installed in an existing engine expect to pay 4-5 times that amount.
The klugey part is no doubt the signaling system. The actual engines are far easier to work on than an equivalent Lionel engine and in the smaller steam, 0-4-0 to 2-8-2 generally better detailed. Lionel wins out a few of their larger engines like big UP steam.
Given there is a loyal MTH following, I doubt they will be left holding any bags.
For record I have engines made by every manufacturer. I don't buy them because of their operating system but because they represent a prototype I am interested in.

Pete

[Neil]

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. If we are still here when Mike finally decides he wants to live in Florida full time, and devote himself to golf, the Dolphins and his family, and MTH is sold or dismantled, we'll have an answer.

But I'm betting most people don't want or need Legacy upgrades, and certainly don't want DCS. Pete, you are amongst a small number of individuals with the knowledge and skills to get inside a modern loco and fix things up. 99.9% of the market is folks who buy a train set and not much more, and then perhaps build a layout, without much ability to tinker with innards of a modern loco. I'm guessing ERR sales and PS3 upgrade sales are in total less than 0.1% of the dollar value of the three rail market, perhaps even less.

You may be quite correct that for the 0.1% or fewer of train set purchasers that open up their loco and do technical magic, PS3 is easier and cheaper than Legacy and no worse than ERR. But that still leaves you with a system that is not user friendly nor reliable (DCS). True believers in DCS will want to continue using it, so some upgrades will, no doubt, as you suggest, be possible through cottage industry folks. This is assuming that Mike Wolf, proud and always right man that he is, allows others to work on his holy, holy of products once he is retired and MTH is gone. That's not a given. Mike has done foolish, self-destructive, selfish, spiteful things before, but perhaps he has matured.

Now that there is LC+2.0, that's more than enough for 95% of the train purchasing population. If there is a LC+ 2.0 upgrade out there, it will cost no more than DCS and be a lot more user friendly, reliable and a lot less quirky. If there is a LC+ upgrade it will cost a lot less than DCS and likewise be more than most people really want or need. Even a LC upgrade would be cheap and reliable. Once MTH is gone and the true believers start to age out, MTH will be an interesting part of history, like Bing, Ives and others. I hope I live to see it and feel vindicated. Actually, I don't give a damn.

[HONDO74]

Question

Will both Lionel & MTH be able to survive the pandemic. Since all the product in made in Asia someplace and MTH mostly made in China, Both might have to file for Bankruptcy. With all the people now and in the future unemployed. Will anyone be able to buy these expensive toys.

They did during the depression in the 30s but then everything was made in the USA and they survived by producing items for the war effort.

[Neil]

I've read that shipments from China aren't going to be much affected. Particularly this time of year, which is their slow season for shipments. If the worst of the crisis is over this summer or early fall, I don't believe either MTH or Lionel will be in much trouble this year.

If people are back to work by then, the transient unemployment may not have the staggering effect that 10 years of depression in the 1920s and 1930s.
We'll see.

[jlong]

I cannot picture the Feds allowing this lock down to drive this nation into a depressionary state of poverty. That would be more lethal to the health of Americans than the virus itself. Detaching ourselves from a global economy certainly cannot happen within a course of months. It is too massively huge. It would take a several years to reconstruct US industries for that. If anything, and this is purely speculation, I forsee positive screening methods going into effect allowing us to go back to somewhat normal until a vaccine is found.

[Neil]

If everybody wore masks in public for the next year or two, that would probably help a great deal in mitigating transmission. Full time, nose and mouth covered. No exceptions unless you want to spend some time in jail .

[Rufus T. Firefly]

If everybody wore masks in public for the next year or two, that would probably help a great deal in mitigating transmission. Full time, nose and mouth covered. No exceptions unless you want to spend some time in jail .

Yes, public endangerment. Actually old laws related to disease transmission and still quite valid.