Coronavirus:

[MurphOnMillerAve]

In the News:
Remarkable indicator of how the public adjustment(s) situation has been progressing and manifesting in NJ:
Last night, a previously scheduled wedding in Lakewood was held with more than 50 guests present. The police were called and everyone was ordered to leave.

Stunning News: Hawaii's governor asked that all prospective tourists stay away; don't visit for at least a month.

[up148]

...arrested for what, exactly?

Price gouging may be charged when a supplier of essential goods or services sharply raises the prices asked in anticipation of or during a civil emergency, or when it cancels or dishonors contracts in order to take advantage of an increase in prices related to such an emergency.

Reference: https://hbr.org/2013/07/the-problem-wit ... uging-laws

Price gouging and profiteering during a declared emergency status.......

Right on! Boils down to intention and taking advantage of an emergency situation. Takes a pretty slimy person to even think of doing it, but some in this country qualify.

[Chris Webster]

A March 16, 2020 report from the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team is summarized in this informative twitter thread by Jeremy C Young.

Young's thread has two important points I have not seen mentioned elsewhere:

• Expect the pandemic to last at least 18 months because that's how long it takes to develop a vaccine safe enough to innoculate all humans
• Models that "flatten the curve" assume that all Americans over 70 will be social distancing

The full report is here: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand (PDF)

Since Young is an unverified twitter user, I'll end by noting that his thread was recommended by
Andy Slavitt, a verified Twitter user who was the head of Medicare, Medicaid & ACA under Obama.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Expect the pandemic to last at least 18 months because that's how long it takes to develop a vaccine safe enough to innoculate all humans

That's if everything works out close to perfect at every stage in the process. Then it's manufacturing, vialing, some more testing..., distribution, etv.

Remember, there's been years when getting the flu vaccine was in short supply. This is all from scratch.

[Neil]

Have you read Scott Mann's account of what is happening near his factory in Shandung Province? After intense public health measures from late January to early February, there are no new cases in the last 10 days amongst 95 million people, according to the "authorities." Hope that's correct.

Our community will be a good test. 1 million people. We are very close to closing everything except grocery stores, drug stores and gas stations. No restaurants, bars or schools are open. We have 18 cases and 1 death so far. Need more testing obviously since there are plenty of asymptomatic carriers still undetected.

If 2-3 weeks pass with a modest increase in cases (say a few dozen), and then the number decreases, we will have evidence that public health measures for 3-8 weeks should work anywhere people actually follow the advice. San Francisco area is doing the same thing. NYC headed in that direction. So we'll have data soon. Godspeed to you all.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Have you read Scott Mann's account of what is happening near his factory in Shandung Province? After intense public health measures from late January to early February, there are no new cases in the last 10 days amongst 95 million people, according to the "authorities." Hope that's correct.

I have almost as much trust of the Chinese data as I have of the WH. But, I do have some hope that 1 of them will be truthful.....someday.

Our community will be a good test. 1 million people. We are very close to closing everything except grocery stores, drug stores and gas stations. No restaurants, bars or schools are open. We have 18 cases and 1 death so far. Need more testing obviously since there are plenty of asymptomatic carriers still undetected.

2 deaths in VA now.

If 2-3 weeks pass with a modest increase in cases (say a few dozen), and then the number decreases, we will have evidence that public health measures for 3-8 weeks should work anywhere people actually follow the advice. San Francisco area is doing the same thing. NYC headed in that direction. So we'll have data soon. Godspeed to you all.

If the rate of case diagnoses flattens out, things will be far better, but it won't be over either.

[ScaleCraft]

We have been warned about "shelter in place". Grocery stores (at least three so far) are providing 1-2 hours when they open for over 60, preggers, compromised immune systems......one store (expensive) is every day.

San Fran locked down, 7+ million folks...watch the births announcements in the SF Examiner in 9 months....US/Canuck border closed at least in NW.

Got groceries topped up for at least two weeks today.

[Neil]

"If the rate of case diagnoses flattens out, things will be far better, but it won't be over either."

To me, over means that the risks of resuming normal every day living are modest and infections are not a threat to the overall public health. If there are five new cases a day (which wouldn't be great) and essentially no deaths, that's going to be much more palatable than 50 or 500 new cases a day and hundreds of new deaths per month/year. I think there is a fair chance that the combination of 3-8 weeks of public health measures and then one or two effective and safe anti-virals will get us there. Here's hoping.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

"If the rate of case diagnoses flattens out, things will be far better, but it won't be over either."

To me, over means that the risks of resuming normal every day living are modest and infections are not a threat to the overall public health. If there are five new cases a day (which wouldn't be great) and essentially no deaths, that's going to be much more palatable than 50 or 500 new cases a day and hundreds of new deaths per month/year. I think there is a fair chance that the combination of 3-8 weeks of public health measures and then one or two effective and safe anti-virals will get us there. Here's hoping.

Possible. Quite possible if we can also curtail excess stupidity within the country.

Couple of safe anti-virals would be good, but that might take time, and then supply & distribution enters into the equation.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

We have been warned about "shelter in place". Grocery stores (at least three so far) are providing 1-2 hours when they open for over 60, preggers, compromised immune systems......one store (expensive) is every day.

Warned about or warned to practice it? Costco was open with a Disney park-like line outside with employees in masks wiping down everything. Limited numbers in/out, but no real issue there at all. In fact, the limiting numbers in/out made the place far better than the usual zoo!

[up148]

We need test kits. I don't know how we can know anything without test kits.

[webenda]

2 deaths in VA now.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

DATA from CDC

While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter, between December and February, but activity can last as late as May.

Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these numbers as estimates.

Code: Select all

Season      Deaths
2010-2011   37,000
2011-2012   12,000
2012-2013   43,000
2013-2014   38,000
2014-2015   51,000
2015-2016   23,000
2016-2017   38,000
2017-2018   61,000
2018-2019   34,157
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been:
2019-2020*  38,500 + 2 in Virginia = 38,502

[Rufus T. Firefly]

We need test kits. I don't know how we can know anything without test kits.

Yeah..........................

[HONDO74]

Not good on the east coast.
At least 7 members of the same New Jersey family contracted COVID-19 at a family gathering. 2 of them died and 4 are in critical condition.
https://news.yahoo.com/5-members-single ... 49752.html

Rita Fusco-Jackson, 55, tested positive for the novel coronavirus after she died last Friday at CentraState Medical Center in Freehold, New Jersey.

Six of her family members were hospitalized with COVID-19 infections, five of whom were in critical condition, according to NJ.com.

The relatives include five of Fusco-Jackson's siblings and their mother, their sister, Elizabeth Fusco told NJ.com.

Her brother, Carmine Fusco, was one of the six and has since died.

Another 19 relatives have been tested for COVID-19 and are now waiting for their results.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

What's going on with the Italy?

35k infected and 3k dead -- closing on 10%. Either that 1st number is just wrong or there's a lot of the more sensitive population in Italy.