The Big Bambu!

[bob turner]

Well, 3d printing in brass would probably be better than most other alloys.

While I agree that the days of affordable new brass built-up O Scale are limited, I bet the market for "used" continues to go up. It has only sagged lately because of Sunset, Weaver, and Williams. And collectors probably outweigh operators by a bunch. I love my collection, but my test loops sit idle for months on end. Most of the O Scalers I know do not even have a single loop, or even a switching layout.

[E7]

While I agree that the days of affordable new brass built-up O Scale are limited, I bet the market for "used" continues to go up. It has only sagged lately because of Sunset, Weaver, and Williams. And collectors probably outweigh operators by a bunch. I love my collection, but my test loops sit idle for months on end. Most of the O Scalers I know do not even have a single loop, or even a switching layout.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the SWW crowd affects the brass market that much. I do think the market for more modern equipment is expanding as opposed to steam/diesel transition (SDT ending with 1st gen diesels). You can sort of see that in MMW's future projects list, with the first SDT project being F units, seven notches down, and that is not counting the stuff being built now and next in line pending stuff. Hard to figure that one, as some pretty decent F's have been done by Key. As for operators, if you are running around a loop, it gets BORING very quickly (opinion) unless it is a large multi-tiered affair.

[up148]

Well, 3d printing in brass would probably be better than most other alloys.

While I agree that the days of affordable new brass built-up O Scale are limited, I bet the market for "used" continues to go up. It has only sagged lately because of Sunset, Weaver, and Williams. And collectors probably outweigh operators by a bunch. I love my collection, but my test loops sit idle for months on end. Most of the O Scalers I know do not even have a single loop, or even a switching layout.

I only hope you're right Bob. But, when I see how the Seacrest collection disturbed market value, I wondered it this isn't the beginning of the end or at least a major correction in brass values. I believe the KEY diesel market is forever changed on value. I know of several collections, owned by well known O scalers (you know them), that number in the hundreds (300-400 each) of mostly steam locomotives. Not SWW models, but multiples of the same Koh's, C&LW, Key, PSC and other high $$$ locos, that in many cases have been enhanced and corrected by Schrader. Models the owner has invested $5-$10K in each one, but will bring a fraction of that when they flood the market after the owners death. Once these locos "come out of the closet" I see the same thing happening to steam models as the Seacrest auction did to diesels. You'll be able to buy super nice models for what we pay for stock USH, WS, OMI and PSC models on EB today, which is way down in value from even a decade ago.

It's all about supply and demand and I don't see future modelers fighting to get these super quality locos or paying anything close to their true value or what they would be worth today. I hope I'm wrong, but history doesn't support my hope. Brass quit being an investment decades ago and to recapture what you pay today will be very tough in the future. So buy what you love, enjoy what you have, and hope you family might want to keep them in your memory, because that will be where the real value is.

Enough doom and gloom from me.

BH

[bob turner]

Butch - I agree with you. I was thinking of the original brass market, the zenith of which was USH. The Key/Kohs/MMW market is way, way out of my area of interest, and for me to make any comment on that limited market other than to wonder about the sanity of a profit-oriented business engaged in it is unadvisable at best.

Like airplanes and cars, far cheaper to buy them restored than to restore them yourself. Schrader is the bargain in this business, but you engage him to fix your model, not to enhance resale value. I am ok at scratch building, but cannot hold a candle to the work of Schrader, or Jay, or Rod. My hourly rate is well over double theirs, which means that, with the demise of my favorite and only customer, I am now free to work on my own stuff, or go fly.

So to that end, brand new engine, and first flight today! Wish me luck!

[E7]

It's all about supply and demand and I don't see future modelers fighting to get these super quality locos or paying anything close to their true value or what they would be worth today.BH

Key just sold a run of Cab Forwards at 7K a pop, and there seems to be a fair line of people stepping up for MWW's offerings, which are NOT cheap. Supply and Demand are factors for sure, but I think it is really hard to apply logic to the brass market.

Why is the same stuff made over and over, and why does it sell?

Rich

[E7]

It's all about supply and demand and I don't see future modelers fighting to get these super quality locos or paying anything close to their true value or what they would be worth today.BH

Key just sold a run of Cab Forwards at 7K a pop, and there seems to be a fair line of people stepping up for MWW's offerings, which are NOT cheap. Supply and Demand are factors for sure, but I think it is really hard to apply logic to the brass market.

Why is the same stuff made (cab forwards, Big Boys for example) over and over, and why does it sell?

Rich

[up148]

It's all about supply and demand and I don't see future modelers fighting to get these super quality locos or paying anything close to their true value or what they would be worth today.BH

Key just sold a run of Cab Forwards at 7K a pop, and there seems to be a fair line of people stepping up for MWW's offerings, which are NOT cheap. Supply and Demand are factors for sure, but I think it is really hard to apply logic to the brass market.

Why is the same stuff made (cab forwards, Big Boys for example) over and over, and why does it sell?

Rich

I think part of the answer to "Why is the same stuff made", has to do with someone wanting to make the best possible model of that prototype that will ever be built as well as collectors wanting to own one. Unless 3D or some other 21st century technic, not know now is applied, it will be hard to ever meet or exceed the KEY AC's. The MMW loco has that same possibility and I can think of a few others that I doubt will be redone to those levels, simply because they are so good current technology doesn't exist to exceed it. And a dwindling and graying collector market will have a lot to do with the demise of the buyers to support a project of this magnitude. We're seeing some remarkable models being built recently and I don't really know what will pull the plug on them, but I believe the cards are stacked against them.

BH

[up148]

So to that end, brand new engine, and first flight today! Wish me luck!

Good luck with that Bob! New engine whew! Can't pull over to the side of the road to check out any perceived or real strange noises. Look forward to a full report.

BH

[cole7015]

Well over on George Kosh web site he has posted 10+ new up dates. For projects that have been around for years
but nothing done with them. He is calling them archived projects, and states he can not say if and when some will ever be done. I find this just hilarious. Did some one ask him did he have a Chinese builder of some one in the Czech republic.

This could be the demise of him as well.

Bill

[rogruth]

There is so much of this I just do not understand. I am a 3 railer so give me a little break.
I was shocked when I found out that some bought Lionel models and never opened the boxes because they expected to make a lot of money selling them sometime in the future. I have since learned that O scale modelers (2R) have been doing the same thing. I must admit if I had enough Money to buy one of those types of models it would probably sit under glass on display. I know it is bad form to talk about money or lack of same. I read often that
O Scale is a small hobby based on the number of people involved. Approximately how many are involved in O Scale? Have layouts? Are collectors?
Are operators of some type? Are similar to Bob Turner and are seemingly more involved in the building of locos and rolling stock?
I personally only know two people actually involved with O scale model railroading. What I mean is that I met these two face to face.
I have talked with and read of many others on forums and in magazines.
As Bob Turner mentioned earlier, what does happen to the value of so many models that have been sitting in collections for so long?
What happens to the old historic model from the 1930s?
FWIW (not much to anybody except me) I have been reading OST for @ 15 years now.
That is about the same amount of time that I have had a 3R layout.

[E7]

Well over on George Kosh web site he has posted 10+ new up dates. For projects that have been around for years but nothing done with them. He is calling them archived projects, and states he can not say if and when some will ever be done. I find this just hilarious. Did some one ask him did he have a Chinese builder of some one in the Czech republic.

This could be the demise of him as well.

Bill

You and others have been predicting the demise of George for years. Keep on doing it, and sooner or later someone will get it right!

[E7]

I think part of the answer to "Why is the same stuff made", has to do with someone wanting to make the best possible model of that prototype that will ever be built as well as collectors wanting to own one. Unless 3D or some other 21st century technic, not know now is applied, it will be hard to ever meet or exceed the KEY AC's. The MMW loco has that same possibility and I can think of a few others that I doubt will be redone to those levels, simply because they are so good current technology doesn't exist to exceed it. And a dwindling and graying collector market will have a lot to do with the demise of the buyers to support a project of this magnitude. We're seeing some remarkable models being built recently and I don't really know what will pull the plug on them, but I believe the cards are stacked against them. BH

I am NOT under any circumstances a brass guru/expert, but I do find some of the stuff that goes on within that specialized segment of the hobby interesting/entertaining. The BIG flaw I see in the persistent pursuit of the best model, is how does one know it is the "BEST" until they receive it? What if you get a whoops like the old Westside J1 tender? 1/2 inch too long or short (I can never remember which). Life ain't easy being a rivet counter! The really serious side, is what happened to people like Pat O'Boyle and Henry Bultmann. The wrong amount of rivets pales in comparison to that!

Rich

[E7]

Roger,

As you are already well familiar with OST, I think you would find it interesting if you could get your hands on a collection of the late "O Scale News 48/ft". A lot of history there that happened before OST came along, and they focused on different aspects of the hobby. Easiest way to acquire them would probably be via the net. I see them on Ebat now and then. Might give you an insight to some of your questions. You might also try posting on the OST forum.

[texas&pacific]

Well, 3d printing in brass would probably be better than most other alloys.

While I agree that the days of affordable new brass built-up O Scale are limited, I bet the market for "used" continues to go up. It has only sagged lately because of Sunset, Weaver, and Williams. And collectors probably outweigh operators by a bunch. I love my collection, but my test loops sit idle for months on end. Most of the O Scalers I know do not even have a single loop, or even a switching layout.

I only hope you're right Bob. But, when I see how the Seacrest collection disturbed market value, I wondered it this isn't the beginning of the end or at least a major correction in brass values. I believe the KEY diesel market is forever changed on value. I know of several collections, owned by well known O scalers (you know them), that number in the hundreds (300-400 each) of mostly steam locomotives. Not SWW models, but multiples of the same Koh's, C&LW, Key, PSC and other high $$$ locos, that in many cases have been enhanced and corrected by Schrader. Models the owner has invested $5-$10K in each one, but will bring a fraction of that when they flood the market after the owners death. Once these locos "come out of the closet" I see the same thing happening to steam models as the Seacrest auction did to diesels. You'll be able to buy super nice models for what we pay for stock USH, WS, OMI and PSC models on EB today, which is way down in value from even a decade ago.

It's all about supply and demand and I don't see future modelers fighting to get these super quality locos or paying anything close to their true value or what they would be worth today. I hope I'm wrong, but history doesn't support my hope. Brass quit being an investment decades ago and to recapture what you pay today will be very tough in the future. So buy what you love, enjoy what you have, and hope you family might want to keep them in your memory, because that will be where the real value is.

Enough doom and gloom from me.

BH

I agree, BH. But its not gloom and doom at all, IMHO. It is market supply and demand.

Prices for O brass, high end-medium-end-low end, have dropped 30-70% in the last several years. I used to save up for months (maybe even a year) for one engine, and now with the same budget (not adjusted for inflation) I can buy three or four. And of these, most are painted and decaled, with the original receipt inside for $100's of dollars for the priming/painting striping and are re-motored/re-geared, and have been sitting in the original box. All I've had to do is clean, lube and run.

The reality is, many more large collections which were amassed in the 90's and earlier, will continue to be put on the market in the next few years, though professional auctions, train shows and the ever-present EB. I doubt the number of bidders for these items will increase, or surpass the volume of items that go before the gavel. I do not see a significant number of collectors coming out of the millennial population. Their interests and disposable income are elsewhere. If this "collector army" does materialize, it will be 20-25 years from now, when they have significant disposable income as "middle agers" and most of our "moderate-sized" collections have since been put curbside (helping to create less supply). Isn't it great how this all works!

Lower brass prices have been driven by the steady influx of large collections onto the market, and relatively fewer (or exactly the same) pool of buyers. With the exception of extremely rare, one-of a kind, or "super-builder name" pieces, all are selling for, on a rough average, a third of their peak price. Note I have said "price" and not "value". To my count, three big collections came on the block this year. Similarly, prices for other railroad exotics like Lionel Standard Gauge pre-war, Lionel O Pre-and-Post war (the The Richard P. Kughn Lionel collection was just announced), HO brass and high end early DCC, Euro exotics like Marklin, Fleischmann, Trix and LGB, and brass, live steam, and other G Scale trains have similarly decreased. My jaw has dropped, fairly consistently, on how low prices went at these auctions. It is not unique to O scale brass, nor model trains, for all that matter.

Over the years of modeling, running and collecting, I too am guilty of "buying high...and buying low". Recent market has allowed me to buy pieces that before were "catalog only" dreams and essentially unobtainable. Of course, I have also looked in my closet and wondered, "Why the heck did I pay $$$ for that?" Geez, back then, that was a LOT of money!

Buy what you like and like what you buy. Fix it, paint it and run it. Brass as an investment, with very few exceptions, is not likely a value creation proposition.

It's a great time to be an O Scaler!