Amazing but sorta useless facts

[Rufus T. Firefly]

For what it's worth, my speculation is "no". Not because of any current political whinge but something far more basic. Simply because no-one has cultivated that next country after Japan, then Korea, then China, for what appear to be sound business reasons.

I think that this was looked and found that next was no better that what was already in place, or so unlikely as to make it an exercise in foolishness....

No interested marketplace anymore, everyone wanting finished works of art for next-to-nothing; for whatever reason, there has to be a market to serve, an agent/importer to cultivate a manufacturer, and a manufacturer that deliver, all three agreeing on a pricepoint. Right now that answer seems to be D) none-of-the-above. (Which explains the MMW fiasco. GRIN!)

Yes; all of those variables conspire to hit stop. And the next-to-nothing price tag seems pervasive. Last trip to Strasburg really emphasized and reinforced that mind set.

[up148]

Yeah, I agree there will be very fewer new brass models in the future. If anyone does it, I think 3rd Rail will be the one to pull the trigger. Scott is a good businessman and not afraid to roll the dice, but also appears to research the market pretty good so it's a minimal gamble. Scott is getting up there in years too and one day he'll call it a day too.

But, there has been a glut of used brass models available since the early 2000's and that has to affect new model production. Except for a few prime or rare pieces the selling prices reflect this glut as brass models are selling for low $$$'s. And, because the hobby has leaned so much towards RTR (brass and plastic) there are some really good buys in unpainted brass models if you want them.

[De Bruin]

Glut indeed as members "age out" of the hobby and their rosters/collections/inventories get liquidated. My impression(s) from the two to three shows I attend per year that the younger folks attracted to 2 rail often have a vastly different interest when it comes to buying rolling stock too. Also that there aren't as many getting into the hobby as those who leave now be they downsizing their living space, move to a smaller "hobby" footprint etc. or to paraphrase Bob .... taking that last train westbound into the sunset.
At the last Chicago Show there was a ton of high quality imported brass steam, as well as 40's-50's era diesels, passenger cars from transition era or "Golden Age" collections or estates etc. at very reasonable prices that didn't sell. The younger guys seemed for the most part to be interested in 2nd and 3rd generation diesel prototypes and freight cars, or in the models having full DCC or easy to convert motors and drives. This is understandable, and importantly there seemed to be a lot of that available second hand from estates and collections too.
The "market" doesn't seem to have very robust demand to economically manufacture the product model of the past 30 to 40 years.
I agree with Sarge the hobby is already evolving to a significantly different product type with regard to rolling stock, buildings, in part due to ever improving 3-D printing technologies and the ease with which new techniques, methods are disseminated via internet.

[up148]

It's definitely been a hobby in transition for decades and now with the advent of 3D printing it's going to transition even more. Greg said it well, 3D printing is a hobby in itself. I'd like to make my own 3D parts, but I need to concentrate on perfecting my basic skillsets like soldering, painting, etc..

IMHO, fewer and fewer young people will enter our hobby. We all tend to like things we grew up around or playing with. Younger adults grew up with different toys than we did and if they do come on board, they'll want to model trains from the era they grew up in. Personally, anything beyond 1st generation diesels is of no interest to me, one exception being the UP SD40-2 snoot.

So, it will be a different hobby in the next decade but for many of us it makes no difference......if we're still here we'll just be modeling and playing with are trains of our youth.

[86TA355SR]

….

I advertised for a coal tender on YS and a West Coast buddy read the post. He had a USH coal tender and needed the oil tender, so we just traded...............both of us got what we needed.

Butch

That’s great news! I’m glad it worked out!

[sarge]

Butch, now we really are saying sooths! GRIN!

There is a pretty vibrant culture behind us. I really believe it, though we don't see them in our traditional haunts; meets, conventions, &c. They socialise on the net, shop on websites, clinic on youtube.

I see them at ops sessions here, out photographing trains, the RPMs, that sort of thing.

They seem far more attracted to the animation possibilities than rivet-by-batten modelbuilding. A good number of them are into 3d printing rather than soldering. They build layouts and control the animation with their phones rather than build kits.

Yep, they want finished running models to animate, not kits to build. Yet the new decal companies are making lots of new stuff, scenery material sells well, Woodland's ready-to-plant structures seem to sell well.

All that points to a transition yet again, but the hobby has always been in transition and old guys have been telling me the hobby is dying for the 60-odd years I've been in O Scale. "Kids do nothing but sit in front of the TV", slot-cars were going to kill it, "diesels keep people from being interested in trains", on and on.

It'll be different than it was for me, but I really am far more optimistic about it continuing. It won't be our hobby but that's good. It survives because it will be the next generation's hobby just like we made it ours. It can adapt.

If I was to offer any advice to anyone who really is worried about their estate, it would be to build and paint yer shit. Folks will buy your finished models done well long before they'll buy your virgin kits and shiny brass. That's where it's goin'. Stop worrying about buying new stuff. Enjoy building the stuff you have.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

There is a pretty vibrant culture behind us. I really believe it, though we don't see them in our traditional haunts; meets, conventions, &c. They socialise on the net, shop on websites, clinic on youtube.

Having a son that is all that above confirms that; however, in many ways we don't see them in our traditional haunts because they are unaware they exist. They are not being reached and they are not looking for them either.

They seem far more attracted to the animation possibilities than rivet-by-batten modelbuilding. A good number of them are into 3d printing rather than soldering. They build layouts and control the animation with their phones rather than build kits.

Electronics; many aspects of that overarching area is in their immediate interest.

Yet the new decal companies are making lots of new stuff, scenery material sells well, Woodland's ready-to-plant structures seem to sell well.

Decals tends to support that someone is building and/or finishing models. The rest is layout/diorama related -- small layouts; shelf and point to point stuff that takes up little room that they do not have to begin with - many of us are blessed with space.

If I was to offer any advice to anyone who really is worried about their estate, it would be to build and paint yer shit. Folks will buy your finished models done well long before they'll buy your virgin kits and shiny brass. That's where it's goin'. Stop worrying about buying new stuff. Enjoy building the stuff you have.

My estate is not my problem, But, I've already moved into a more aggressive build it or sell it phase. Kits are hard to sell, although I do run into a few select buyers (young guys!) now and again. Finished models are only very slightly easier to sell and I'm not altogether sure I entirely believe that any more, but that's based on my Strasburg experience which is probably skewed. No worries on buying new stuff; there isn't any that I'd want.

So the only real worry that I might have is finding suitable drive systems for under trolleys; Q-Car is still there but with the Magic Carpet drives gone, I'm not sure about the Stanton drives....I am hopeful that detail parts for trolleys will have a 3D printing solution.

[bob turner]

We are a very small niche, and among us are smaller niches. Not being a proselytizer, I really don't care how small this group gets - I just enjoy my part.
Bryan is correct about the paint - I used to think that bare brass models would attest to the skill of the builder, but lost many contests to factory painted imported models - so now I bead blast and paint, secure in the knowledge that if I ever want to see my craftsmanship, I can strip and blast to bare metal in about a half hour.
My estate is probably imminent, just by dint of age. I won't care what happens to all of it at that point. I did offer some locomotives to a museum, but other than the director, I got no interest. Some really nice cab forwards will appear on eBay within the next decade or so. Or they will go in the dumpster.
I may have "over-accumulated!"

By the way, on another thread - startlingly good ice cars, Martin!

[Rufus T. Firefly]

By the way, on another thread - startlingly good ice cars, Martin!

Thanks; almost all were salvage/scratch cars; one exception was that Juneco kit. Fun build that one was.

[E7]

Some really nice cab forwards will appear on eBay within the next decade or so. Or they will go in the dumpster.

Being fatalistic, I think it's a pretty fair bet, it will ALL end up in the dumpster sooner or later, Consider the idea how much stuff is laying around from years past (apart from museums and the like).

I don't spend much time worrying about where it's going as opposed to where it is!

Rich

[up148]

Recently learned of a book written about how all we boomers are loading our kids up with collectables/heirlooms they don't want. Nothing new here but it's hard to believe it justifies a book.

With this mindset justifying a book, it's an easy jump to dumpster trains.

[SWrailroader]

My experience concurs with the running qualities of USH KTM. The MG have some variability due to their gearboxes. They are jig built and really cannot be disassembled. The best running models of the group are the Icken modified gearboxes.

[bob turner]

I have regeared a couple with NWSL - startlingly smooth. And you can have boilers without C-sections if you want.

[E7]

[quote="sarge" If I was to offer any advice to anyone who really is worried about their estate, it would be to build and paint yer shit. Folks will buy your finished models done well long before they'll buy your virgin kits and shiny brass. That's where it's goin'. Stop worrying about buying new stuff. Enjoy building the stuff you have.[/quote]

By the time MY stuff becomes an estate I rather doubt I will be worried about anything, figuring I will be deceased. I am inclined to think about leaving the whole kit and kaboodle (other than the costs to get it there) to the likes of St. Judes to those that REALLY need a helping hand. I thought about taking it with me, but I don't think I can afford the freight!