Model Train Journal

Hey Rufus.
You predicted the country was heading for a recession. You just had the year wrong and probably the reason,

It will happen this year and many thousands of people will be out of work again,

HONDO74 wrote:Hey Rufus.
You predicted the country was heading for a recession. You just had the year wrong and probably the reason,

It will happen this year and many thousands of people will be out of work again,

I had the year wrong - true.

Covid-19 was merely the trigger that revealed the true cause - a weak, fragile artificially propped up economy that has nothing going for it other than the consumer market and is based on grossly excessive amounts of credit w/o real substance. Much of this is leftover from 2006-8. A lot of the selling has been to cover excessive speculation with cheap money in the options market. When these options have to suddenly be covered, fire sales of everything else ensues and that's what you're seeing now with huge swings of the market, primarily downwards. The cost of the an aspect of the credit crisis....evident in the downward trends of quality stocks, bonds, and gold all at the same time.

We'll be lucky if it's only a recession and only world-wide. Be surprised if some of the oil companies don't go bankrupt - most are terrible over extended.

But we'll probably bail them out, along with Boeing, GE, and few other segments. So much for capitalism!

A byproduct of the Saudi-Russian oil fight will be the wipe-out of the frackers in the U. S. Their model depends on a minimum price for crude of around $45-$50...anything less than that and their income stream versus their costs goes upside down. I suspect the Government will step in to prop them up, along with the airlines, the cruise lines, the major hotel chains, and maybe the restaurant business.

If we get one thing from this fiasco, hopefully those POS European banks will go belly-up. They're still carrying garbage on their books from the 2008-2009 crisis. At least in this country, Hank Paulson and the boys forced that crap off the books. The gutless Europeans did nothing.

healey36 wrote:A byproduct of the Saudi-Russian oil fight will be the wipe-out of the frackers in the U. S. Their model depends on a minimum price for crude of around $45-$50...anything less than that and their income stream versus their costs goes upside down.

Most are carrying ridiculous amounts of debt - price goes low enough and they will not be able to service their debt.

I suspect the Government will step in to prop them up, along with the airlines, the cruise lines, the major hotel chains, and maybe the restaurant business.

The same folks that were screaming about socialism will lining up at the trough..........

If we get one thing from this fiasco, hopefully those POS European banks will go belly-up. They're still carrying garbage on their books from the 2008-2009 crisis. At least in this country, Hank Paulson and the boys forced that crap off the books. The gutless Europeans did nothing.

More that remains just the fault of too much credit being extended......lots of over-extended businesses floating in a cesspool of debt