Northern weather

[healey36]

Usually tornadic weather requires relatively flat land. Too many changes in elevation and the wind flow patterns tend to break up.

I think that's largely a myth, one disproved by the improved measurement and identification data accumulated by the NWS over the past two decades. Maryland, for instance, rarely reported tornados in the last century, but now annually reported/confirmed twisters are reaching double-digits.

My understanding is topography has great effect on the duration, i.e. time-on-the-ground, for most instances. You don't see the midwestern fifty-mile rampages here, just a relatively brief but highly destructive touchdown. A family friend of my parents lost his 120 year-old farm house and barn to an F3 storm here close to three decades ago, and he lives on the crest of a ridge.

[chuck]

The increased intensity of the storms can spawn funnel clouds of brief duration. The cells we are seeing can also spawn "microbursts" which can be just as devastating without rotational winds. The cell can accumulated enough energy that a "bomb" of supercooled air breaks through the top of the cloud and drops like a hammer smashing trees and structures when it hits the ground. The key signature is a radial blast pattern unlike the spiral patterns associated with a tornado.

I am seeing more and more of the "pop corn" storms here in SE Michigan where unstable caused by high heat and humidity will result in the creation of isolated cells that boil up, dump tremendous amounts of "local" rain and then disappear once their energy is spent. A lot of water and potential wind damage under the storm. When you are looking at the weather radar you see blobs of green form rapidly, boil up through yellow, orange and then red, and then disappear. A new blob forms and the process repeats. This used to be the exception but it now seems to be the rule. Over the last 10-15 years I have seen more and more of this weather. Makes everything "interesting" because you are getting random patterns of intense rain or no rain at all over vast areas. Localized flash floods (none of the storm drains were built for this). A lot of our freeways are below local grade. They can become giant ditches in these type of storms and should be avoided. In addition to the bad roads and bad drivers you now have to pay attention to really bad weather.

There isn't always a front pushing the "system" with picket lines of thunder heads (cold front) or a massive blob of green marching through (warm front). It kind of reminds me of the daily weather patterns in the Caribbean. Individual cells boil up just after lunch, dump their rain and then it clears up. In our case the storms usually don't hit till 3-6 PM, almost a time delay.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Just saw that a tornado was heading into Bucks from Burlington NJ

Really? My wife is panicked about all these tornado warning. My phone buzzes every 10 minutes with a new warning . We lost power @ 6pm. Now wind all rain. If i were to guess. I’d say over 10 inches in the last 3 hours. With most of it between 4:30 and 6pm

Yes, really. Just watched the film of a few in Bucks and surrounding counties. The Surekill looks like a huge mess...

Main road just outside my community is still closed for probably a day or 2. Might hike down that way later today.

[healey36]

Chuck, do you think the increasing number of events is simply a matter of better identification/assessment by the agency, or is there something else going on?

[robert.]

My wife is ready to move out of the area. We have had 20 tornadoes this summer

[Rufus T. Firefly]

My wife is ready to move out of the area. We have had 20 tornadoes this summer

I was looking at the flooding in Somerset, NJ........and then someone in NJ stating "we don't get tornadoes in NJ...."

[HONDO74]

My wife is ready to move out of the area. We have had 20 tornadoes this summer

Where would you move to that she would feel safe from catastrophic weather.

I live in Tornado Alley

[HONDO74]

Storm floods kill NYC residents in basement homes
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-58420997

At least 15 people are dead after flash flooding and tornadoes hit the north-east US
Some people were trapped in flooded basements; one body was retrieved from a vehicle
Footage showed water pouring into subway stations and people's homes
The governors of New York and New Jersey declared a state of emergency
Almost all New York subway lines are closed
Many flights and trains out of New York and New Jersey have been suspended

[Rufus T. Firefly]

I live in Tornado Alley

Which now appears to include, VA, MD, DE, PA, and NJ.

[robert.]

Look online for photos Philadelphia Ida Vine street expressways

[HONDO74]

I live in Tornado Alley

Which now appears to include, VA, MD, DE, PA, and NJ.

Yes the yellow brick road has gotten a lot longer since the 1930s and a thousand times more stuff for nature to destroy,

This was a pristine country 400 years ago. Have you seen it lately. One big shopping mall. Humans have done a great job of trashing the planet.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Have you seen it lately. One big shopping mall. Humans have done a great job of trashing the planet.

Yes, I have. And maybe that's what you see where you are, and that's pretty sad. Maybe you need to move somewhere else, like Somerset, NJ.

Up at my place in PA, it's basically unchanged. Small changes, but basic appearance is very much like some of those cards I post. In fact, the only difference in scenes is the size of the trees.....

[chuck]

Chuck, do you think the increasing number of events is simply a matter of better identification/assessment by the agency, or is there something else going on?

Combination of both. Better radar, drones that can do arial surveillance (after the fact).

The intensity/ferocity of the storms is another story. The computer models can only predict what ever they have been programmed to. If variables have seriously changed the models will need to be adjusted. I suspect that a key overlooked ingredient in this summers weather, especially the eastern half of the country, is the extremely fine as particles from the massive fires out west. This is particulate is very adept at drawing moisture in the air to form droplets for rain. Think of it as massive cloud seeding. Planetary magnetic field is getting pretty wobbly and that affects were solar wind hits the upper atmosphere. The resultant heating in turn affects the patterns of the jet stream which plays a significant role in driving weather patterns.

We only learned about the existence of the jet stream in WW-2 so baseline data is pretty slim. Up until about 10 years ago the snake like "ribbons" (northern and southern hemispheres) were pretty well defined and would shift n/s or e/w about 300-400 miles. There were predictable seasonal affects as well. All that's been shot to hell. Sometimes the jet just disappears or manifests as a straight line for 1000-1500 miles. Because the jet has a great influence on the movement of massive high and low pressure areas where it is and what it is doing is kind of important.

I think it was about forty years ago the US and Russian scientists played around with trying to alter the jet stream to "weaponize" weather by beaming microwaves to specific areas of the atmosphere. While they did succeed in making changes the amounts of energy involved paled in comparison to single solar flare and the key part was that weather is a global phenomenon and when you try to "push" one area of the atmosphere it may move in a completely different and often undesirable direction.

[HONDO74]

Climate change: Arctic warming linked to colder winters
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526

A new study shows that increases in extreme winter weather in parts of the US are linked to accelerated warming of the Arctic.

The scientists found that heating in the region ultimately disturbed the circular pattern of winds known as the polar vortex.

This allowed colder winter weather to flow down to the US, notably in the Texas cold wave in February.

The authors say that warming will see more cold winters in some locations.

Over the past four decades, satellite records have shown how increasing global temperatures have had a profound effect on the Arctic.

Warming in the region is far more pronounced than in the rest of the world, and has caused a rapid shrinkage of summer sea ice.

Scientists have long been concerned about the implications of this amplification of global change for the rest of the planet.

This new study indicates that the warming in the Arctic is having a significant impact on winter weather in both North America and East Asia.

The researchers detail a complex meteorological chain that connects this warmer region to a rotating pattern of cold air known as the polar vortex.

The authors show that the melting of ice in the Barents and Kara seas leads to increased snowfall over Siberia and a transfer of excess energy that impacts the swirling winds in the stratosphere above the North Pole.

The heat ultimately causes a stretching of the vortex which then enables extremely cold weather to flow down to the US.

[chuck]

The melting of the arctic ice is also having a dramatic impact on ocean currents. A weak current that flowed out between Greenland and northern Canada has become a strong current as extremely cold water is pouring into the Gulf Stream near Labrador. This will have far reaching effects on northern Europe. South east Ireland HAS HAD a subtropical climate for most of recorded history because of the warm currents of the Gulf Stream. As that current cools down the weather in the rest of Ireland as well as most of England will cool down considerably becoming more like Norway. The impact on fishing will also be significant as the warm water supported the base of the fish food pyramid. As the water cools down there will be less food and then less fish.