Coronavirus:

[Roy]

How close are we to sufficient testing, in this country?

[HONDO74]

How close are we to sufficient testing, in this country?

Check with the CDC,

[robert.]

Some of governor wolf's school reopening outline
https://www.education.pa.gov/Documents/ ... idance.pdf

[Neil]

Large scale testing is no longer something that is key to future safety. When someone gets sick with the coronavirus, tracing contacts does not require large scale testing, so testing is not the problem now. The problem is we don't know whether there will be a resurgence of cases in the fall as for most respiratory viruses. Probably will be. We also don't know how effective public health measures such as universal masking, at least indoors will be, and whether people will actually comply sufficiently. That's our best hope for avoiding another hundred thousand or more deaths at this point.

Bigger unknowns, but unlikely to make a difference in the next few months are whether anti-virals such as remdesivir can make a difference in the number of very sick or dead people. A vaccine is both a bigger unknown and likely further off than anti-virals, so we're on our own this fall relying on masks, hand washing, avoiding large groups indoors (and perhaps outdoors) and whatever anti-virals become available in the next few months.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

The problem is we don't know whether there will be a resurgence of cases in the fall as for most respiratory viruses. Probably will be.

May not have to wait until Fall with the large numbers of protestors out totally ignoring distancing and with a fair number not wearing masks.

Might see impact a lot sooner than this Fall.

I'm hopeful of an anti-viral that's actually designed for this virus specifically making it through phase 2 this year.....but I'm not expecting much else to be available this year.

Pretty much written 2020 off as a lost year..........

[robert.]

From the frying pan to the fire. Yesterday we had violent storms. Power was out for 20 hours. I have fear of a total loss in the freezer. i'll check it out tonight. i use frozen water bottles with a dime in it. Each bottle has a dime sitting on top off the ice. if it melts. The dime will sink.

[Neil]

"May not have to wait until Fall with the large numbers of protestors out totally ignoring distancing and with a fair number not wearing masks."

Hoping that outdoors the risk of close contact for a few minutes is much less than the risk of similar exposure indoors, but we will see. Lots more air movement and dilution even without a breeze. The combination of warmer weather, greater humidity and being outdoors may be a lucky charm . But beware the Ides of September (or October). With the ignoramus in chief not recommending masks, and his followers pretending this epidemic is being overblown by the media, people are potentially going to do stupid things such as ignoring the simple public health measures we know work. Masks, no large groups indoors, hand hygiene, disease reporting and contact tracing, quarantine.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

"May not have to wait until Fall with the large numbers of protestors out totally ignoring distancing and with a fair number not wearing masks."

Hoping that outdoors the risk of close contact for a few minutes is much less than the risk of similar exposure indoors, but we will see. Lots more air movement and dilution even without a breeze. The combination of warmer weather, greater humidity and being outdoors may be a lucky charm . But beware the Ides of September (or October).

We could get lucky, but that if it happens will only spur forward continued poor decision making.

With the ignoramus in chief not recommending masks, and his followers pretending this epidemic is being overblown by the media, people are potentially going to do stupid things such as ignoring the simple public health measures we know work. Masks, no large groups indoors, hand hygiene, disease reporting and contact tracing, quarantine.

The Orangutan will just declare it all over and that it was all a sham.

[chuck]

From the frying pan to the fire. Yesterday we had violent storms. Power was out for 20 hours. I have fear of a total loss in the freezer. i'll check it out tonight. i use frozen water bottles with a dime in it. Each bottle has a dime sitting on top off the ice. if it melts. The dime will sink.

Depends on the age and type of freezer AND staying out of it while the power is out. Smart trick with the water bottle and dimes.

From MSU guidelines on food safety

When the power does go out:

If you are home when the power goes out check the time. As a rule of thumb, a refrigerator will keep food cold for four to six hours. Food in the refrigerator/freezer will stay frozen for about a day. A full freestanding freezer may be safe for 48 hours and a half-full freezer for 24 hours.Feb 17, 2014

Those are pretty conservative numbers. Our fridge has kept stuff cold for 8-12 hours.

[bob turner]

When deaths levelled off, then decreased, I stopped tracking. Looked like it might be over.

One has to take statistical snapshots with a huge grain of salt, but this, from CDC, might give pause - here in sunny San Diego, most have given up on precautions:

Total San Diego deaths due to Covid: 312. Total in the last 24 hrs: 57.

Same for California: 4422 and 61.

Probably an anomaly in the data, but if not, San Diego might be in serious trouble.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

When deaths levelled off, then decreased, I stopped tracking. Looked like it might be over.

Rates decreasing and everyone deciding that "it's over" is exactly the kind of bad decision making that isn't needed. Hence, that is exactly what the WH will do and declare it all over, nothing more to see, everyone back to work, back to normal......

[HONDO74]

Just got the power back from the storm that went through last night,

Coronavirus: The mystery of asymptomatic 'silent spreaders'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52840763

As the crisis has unfolded, scientists have discovered more evidence about a strange and worrying feature of the coronavirus. While many people who become infected develop a cough, fever and loss of taste and smell, others have no symptoms at all and never realise they're carrying Covid-19.

[Chris Rock]

When deaths levelled off, then decreased, I stopped tracking. Looked like it might be over.

One has to take statistical snapshots with a huge grain of salt, but this, from CDC, might give pause - here in sunny San Diego, most have given up on precautions:

Total San Diego deaths due to Covid: 312. Total in the last 24 hrs: 57.

Same for California: 4422 and 61.

Probably an anomaly in the data, but if not, San Diego might be in serious trouble.

Bob,
It is an interesting stat considering if there were 57 deaths in San Diego in 24 hours, that would leave only 4 deaths for the rest of the whole state of California to reach 61 in 24 hours.

Every state website that I've followed has good charts, easy to follow and find, but when I've gone to the California state sites I've had difficulty finding similar charts. I've been looking at the death rate curves like you describe. I'm not sure why I've had such difficulty finding them there. Can you give me a lead on where to go?

[HONDO74]

They are marching shoulder-to-shoulder for hours on end. They are chanting, shouting and singing, often without masks. Meanwhile, police officers are spraying them with cough-inducing tear gas, herding them into tight corners and loading the hundreds they arrest into buses, vans and holding cells.

The question now is whether this apparent recipe for COVID-19 disaster will spark a resurgence right when the United States seemed to be getting its epidemic under control.

Experts and epidemiologists say that we won’t know the answer for weeks. After infection, symptoms can take up to 14 days to present; testing positive or requiring hospitalization can take even longer. Today’s data is a window into the past.

No matter the outcome, almost nobody will take social distancing guidelines seriously after this. It's pretty hard to tell people to stay 6 feet apart and not gather in groups larger than 10 people when thousands of people are allowed to flood the streets of all our major cities.

If there is not a significant uptick of cases related to the areas of protests and looting, then we should all get back to work immediately and stop all social distancing as apparently it was not needed.

So nice of these "peaceful protesters" testing the real strength of the virus. They are mostly young people so they'll be fine. Maybe, not so much their parents and grandparents.

[robert.]

Pennsylvania's governor marched with them. shoulder to shoulder.